公募基金高质量竞速：谁在晋级，谁将掉队？

Core Insights - The overall asset management scale of China's public fund industry has reached 36 trillion yuan, with the top ten fund companies all surpassing one trillion yuan in management scale, indicating a trend of increasing concentration in the industry [3][5] - More than 30% of fund managers have experienced a decline in scale compared to the previous quarter, highlighting a "stronger becoming stronger, weaker becoming weaker" phenomenon [3][4] Industry Overview - The public fund industry is entering a phase of elimination, driven by stricter regulations, intensified competition, and the maturation of investors, which will squeeze the survival space for companies lacking core competitiveness [4] - The era of merely pursuing scale expansion is over, and companies must focus on sustainable excess returns, effective passive product capabilities, and enhancing investor experience to thrive [4] Competitive Landscape - As of October 29, 2025, all top ten public fund companies have crossed the one trillion yuan mark in management scale, with E Fund leading at 23,928 billion yuan, followed by Huaxia Fund at 21,508 billion yuan [5][6] - The competition among the top companies is fierce, with E Fund and Huaxia Fund forming a distinct first tier, while companies like GF Fund, Southern Fund, and Fortune Fund are vying for positions in the second tier [7] Growth Dynamics - The mid-tier companies, with management scales between 500 billion and 1 trillion yuan, are experiencing significant competition, with notable growth disparities among them [8][9] - China Universal Fund leads this tier with a growth rate of 17.32%, followed closely by Invesco Great Wall Fund at 16.35%, primarily driven by net value growth in equity funds [9] ETF Market Competition - The ETF market has become a critical battleground for medium to large fund companies, with various firms competing across multiple dimensions [10][13] - Huaxia Fund currently leads in non-monetary ETF scale at 9,037 billion yuan, but faces strong competition from E Fund, which has rapidly increased its scale [11][12] Fixed Income Opportunities - Some fund companies have seen significant growth in their fixed income plus (固收+) products, despite challenges in the traditional pure bond business [15][16] - Notably, Invesco Great Wall Fund's fixed income plus scale grew by 755 billion yuan in a single quarter, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards these products [16][17] Challenges and Risks - Companies heavily reliant on money market funds, such as China Construction Fund and Tianhong Fund, face challenges in diversifying their business and finding new growth paths [20] - Some firms are experiencing declines in traditional core business areas, particularly in the bond market, which has seen significant volatility [20][21]