重大！中国重启采购美豆，巴西大豆竟主动开启降价潮！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's potential purchase of U.S. soybeans has triggered a price drop in Brazilian soybeans, highlighting a competitive market dynamic where buyers influence pricing strategies [1][4]. - Recent data shows that Brazilian soybean spot prices dropped over 1% in a single day, while U.S. soybean prices rebounded by more than 100 cents [1][3]. - The market is currently experiencing a "window period" where timely purchases can secure pricing power, with U.S. soybean prices having risen significantly due to anticipated Chinese demand [3][4]. Group 2 - The peak season for South American soybean harvests is approaching, with Brazil expected to achieve record production and stock levels exceeding 33 million tons, indicating ample global supply [4][8]. - Brazilian sellers are proactively lowering prices to remain competitive, with current U.S. soybean prices at approximately 3936 CNY/ton compared to Brazilian soybeans at 4042 CNY/ton, a difference of over 100 CNY [5][8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that South American production capacity will dominate the market, with China expected to purchase only 12 to 15 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year, insufficient to disrupt the prevailing "South American pricing" structure [8][9]. Group 3 - Domestic crushing enterprises are maintaining a substantial soybean inventory of nearly 9.5 million tons at ports, indicating that they will not excessively stockpile U.S. soybeans despite price drops [9]. - The current soybean market is characterized by a lack of demand confidence rather than a shortage of supply, suggesting that market players are focusing on price fluctuations for hedging and inventory optimization [9].