CNGR(SZ:300919) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-02 06:44Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed a slight decline due to foreign exchange losses, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 sales volume growth is robust, with a significant increase anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal demand [2] - The company is expected to turn around losses in iron phosphate and increase nickel self-supply, contributing to profit elasticity [3] - Capital expenditures are accelerating, with a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1-3 of 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion, down 16% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue reached 11.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and a net profit of 380 million, reflecting a decrease of 17% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company experienced a foreign exchange loss of 130 million in Q3, which increased by nearly 80 million compared to Q2; excluding this impact, Q3 net profit grew by 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Sales Volume and Production - The company expects Q3 sales volume of ternary precursors and four-cobalt to reach 64,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [2] - The anticipated total sales volume for 2025 is approximately 250,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23% [2] - For 2026, the company forecasts a sales volume growth of around 15%, reaching 280,000 to 290,000 tons, with four-cobalt contributing 35,000 to 40,000 tons [2] Group 3: Product Segments - Q3 sales volume of iron phosphate is expected to be 43,000 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, and the company anticipates turning profitable in Q4 [3] - Nickel production in Q3 is projected at 40,000 tons, with an equity contribution of 24,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-supply of 30,000 tons of nickel metal in 2026, increasing the self-supply ratio to over 25% [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditures and Forecasts - Q3 operating expenses amounted to 940 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [4] - Capital expenditures for Q1-3 of 2025 totaled 3.2 billion, down 17% year-on-year, with Q3 capital expenditures at 1.5 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [4] - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.54 billion, 2 billion, and 2.61 billion respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 27x, 21x, and 16x [4]