51：47！美参议院通过表决，终止特朗普关税政策，中国躺赢？

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's global tariff policy with a vote of 61 in favor and 47 against, reflecting a partisan divide where Democrats largely supported the measure and Republicans opposed it [1][3] - The proposal is unlikely to pass in the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans, and even if it does, overriding a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which is improbable in the current political climate [1][3] - The Democratic push for the proposal is influenced by recent inflation data, with the core PCE price index remaining at 3.2%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and highlighting an 18.7% increase in import prices since the tariffs were implemented [3][5] Group 2 - Research indicates that while Trump's steel tariffs ostensibly protected 140,000 steel jobs, they resulted in a loss of 500,000 jobs in downstream manufacturing, with the cost of producing vehicles increasing by $1,200 due to tariffs [5][7] - The Tax Foundation estimates that eliminating all tariffs could provide middle-class families with an additional $1,347 annually, which could be used for various expenses, thereby framing the Democratic proposal as a means to alleviate financial burdens on voters [5][7] - In the 2024 election cycle, donations from U.S. manufacturing groups to Senate trade committee members surged to $180 million, with pro-tariff lawmakers receiving 3.2 times more funding than their opponents, indicating significant financial interests behind the tariff policies [7][11] Group 3 - The IMF reports a shift in global trade dynamics, with Asia-Pacific's trade share rising to 38.7% since the RCEP agreement, while the U.S. share in the TPP has decreased from 35% in 2016 to 28% [11][12] - The shift in production chains is evident, with companies like Toyota relocating parts production to China and Vietnam, reflecting a broader trend of supply chain migration towards Asia [12][18] - The global payment landscape is changing, with the share of the renminbi in global payments rising to 6.2% and the dollar dropping to 46.8%, indicating a growing trend of countries opting for alternatives to the dollar for trade settlements [14][24] Group 4 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October 2025, indicating a contraction for three consecutive months, while rising import costs due to tariffs are making it difficult for U.S. agricultural machinery to compete in South America [17][22] - China's exports to ASEAN grew by 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to a mere 2.3% growth in exports to the U.S., showcasing China's increasing competitiveness in global markets [18][20] - The World Trade Organization noted that the U.S. share of global trade restrictions has decreased from 53% in 2018 to 28% in 2025, signaling a significant shift in global trade practices away from reliance on tariffs [27][29]