Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-02 07:36Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a significant downturn despite rising international gold prices, leading to store closures and reduced consumer demand for gold jewelry [1][3][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have surged from a range of $2300-$2500 per ounce in 2025 to over $4000 per ounce in October 2023, marking an increase of nearly 60% year-to-date [3][11]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen from approximately 766-768 yuan per gram to over 1200 yuan, reflecting a price increase of over 50% [3][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment has shifted to a more cautious approach, with many checking real-time gold prices and delaying purchases, leading to a 3.54% decline in national gold consumption in the first half of the year, with a 26% drop in gold jewelry consumption [3][5]. - The wedding market is particularly affected, with a projected 20% drop in marriage numbers in 2024, directly reducing gold jewelry demand by 30% [9]. Group 3: Retail Challenges - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang are closing underperforming stores, with Chow Tai Fook closing approximately 500 stores and Chow Sang Sang closing 674 franchise stores since 2024 [7][9]. - The high cost of gold has led to increased pricing strategies among brands, with some raising prices by up to 20%, further suppressing consumer demand [5][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The rise of new sales channels, such as the Shui Bei market, which utilizes a "wholesale-retail integration" model, is challenging traditional gold retailers by offering lower prices through live streaming and community marketing [7]. - There is a notable shift in consumer preference towards purchasing gold bars from banks, which offer lower premiums and better quality assurance, with bank gold bar consumption increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year [7][9]. Group 5: Investment Demand - Despite the decline in gold jewelry consumption, investment demand for gold remains strong, with global gold demand reaching 1313 tons in Q3 2025, the highest quarterly total on record [9][11]. - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its holdings to 73.7 million ounces, supporting gold's status as a safe-haven asset [11].