Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-02 08:29Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q3, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit, attributed to external factors such as tariff fluctuations [1][6]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 60 million, showing a year-on-year decline of 36.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60% - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 6.05 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.3% to 200 million [1]. Business Segment Performance - The company achieved double growth in revenue for Q3, with all five major business segments showing year-on-year growth - TPMS revenue increased by 13.1% to 1.82 billion, with expectations for further market share growth due to overseas capacity expansion - Smart suspension revenue surged by 51.7% to 950 million, with optimistic projections for Q4 and 2026 due to new projects and overseas capacity initiatives - Revenue from automotive metal pipes and valve stems grew by 0.4% and 5.1% to 1.12 billion and 620 million, respectively - The automotive sensor segment saw an 18.2% increase in revenue to 560 million [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - Q3 gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter by 0.9 percentage points to 21.3%, despite year-on-year pressure from tariff fluctuations and pricing pressures - The company managed to reduce sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, benefiting from ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts - The gross margin is expected to continue improving as high-demand models drive scale effects and internal cost management progresses [3]. Strategic Developments - The smart suspension business is rapidly expanding, with a new joint venture focusing on full active suspension systems - The company secured significant contracts for its smart suspension and sensor products, with plans for mass production in 2026 [4]. - Emerging businesses are accelerating expansion, indicating potential for substantial growth opportunities [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to anticipated lower profit margins in new business phases and external pressures, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 24%, 20%, and 17% to 310 million, 420 million, and 540 million, respectively - Based on comparable company valuation averages, a target price of 41.75 is set for 2026, reflecting a PE ratio of 21.3x [6].