Starbucks Shares Are Up After Its Earnings Report. Is It a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has reported a positive shift in its performance, with the CEO indicating that the company's turnaround is gaining traction, despite ongoing challenges and a significant drop in net income [1][12]. Financial Performance - Starbucks reported a 1% year-over-year growth in global same-store sales for the first time since Q4 2023, indicating a potential recovery in sales performance [4]. - North American same-store sales remained flat, but company-operated sales for U.S. locations turned positive in September [5]. - Internationally, same-store sales increased by 3%, with China showing a 2% growth as the company opened its 8,000th store [6][7]. - Net income fell by 85% to $133 million, and earnings per share decreased by 34%, attributed to restructuring expenses and cost pressures [9]. - Revenue rose by 5% year over year, but operating margin fell by 500 basis points to 9.4% [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The Green Apron initiative, aimed at enhancing customer experience and transaction performance, has led to improved wait times in 80% of U.S. locations [6]. - Starbucks is implementing a $1 billion restructuring plan, which will incur above-average expenses for several quarters as the company continues to close U.S. stores [10][11]. Dividend and Financial Health - The company announced a 1.6% increase in dividends, raising payouts from $0.61 to $0.62 per share, which is unsustainable given the current payout ratio of 103.9% [12][13]. - Starbucks has $4.5 billion in cash against $27.9 billion in total debt, raising concerns about its ability to maintain dividend payments in the face of ongoing financial challenges [14]. Market Valuation - Following the earnings report, Starbucks' price-to-earnings ratio rose to 52, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 30, suggesting that the stock is priced as if the turnaround has already been successful [15].