美联储是否会在12月份继续降息？？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0% and end balance sheet reduction on December 1 aligns with market expectations, but the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by approximately 10 basis points due to a hawkish statement from Powell regarding future rate cuts [5][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0% [5]. - The balance sheet reduction will conclude on December 1 [5]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased following Powell's hawkish remarks [4][6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The implied interest rate path for two-year U.S. Treasury yields indicates a significant shift in market sentiment regarding future rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut now perceived to be around 50% [6][30]. - The effective federal funds rate minus the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates a reduction in the Fed's rate cut space from 57 basis points to 29 basis points after the October cut [20]. Group 3: Economic Context and Risks - The Fed's ability to lower rates is constrained by the international pricing of long-term sovereign debt, which has shifted due to the U.S. sovereign debt situation [10][15]. - The current economic environment, including the government shutdown, complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as it limits access to reliable economic data [21][22]. - Powell's hawkish stance is partly driven by concerns over rising sovereign risk premiums, which could hinder the effectiveness of rate cuts [21][30]. Group 4: Global Debt Market Dynamics - The ongoing geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has altered the dynamics of the U.S. debt market, increasing the total U.S. debt by $8 trillion [26][28]. - The perception of U.S. Treasuries has shifted from being viewed as risk-free to being treated like ordinary sovereign debt, affecting their pricing and the Fed's rate cut strategy [28][30].