ETS(SZ:002545) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-02 08:46Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising potash prices and effective cost management, indicating a positive outlook for the potash industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 830 million yuan, up 77.6% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 810 million yuan, reflecting a 76.1% year-on-year increase [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.24 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.0% and 4.3%, respectively [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 330 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 75.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.4% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items for Q3 was also 330 million yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 73.5% and 19.8%, respectively [1] Industry Trends - The increase in potash prices is attributed to reduced production from leading overseas suppliers and heightened trade costs due to geopolitical risks [1] - The average domestic market price for potash in Q3 was approximately 3,269 yuan per ton, a 9.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The FOB price in Vancouver for potash in Q3 was about 313 USD per ton, reflecting a 7.0% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was recorded at 43.6%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 13.2 and 7.0 percentage points, respectively [1] - The potash industry is expected to maintain high levels of profitability due to limited new production capacity and steady demand growth [1] Expansion Projects - The company is steadily advancing its expansion project in Laos, where it holds potash mining rights with over 400 million tons of pure potassium chloride resources [2] - The first phase of a 500,000 tons/year potash project was completed in May 2015, and the first phase of a second project with a capacity of 1.5 million tons/year was achieved in April 2023 [2] - The company currently has a production capacity of 1 million tons/year and is working on the construction of an additional 1 million tons/year potash project [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.65 billion, 5.00 billion, and 6.07 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 7.5%, and 21.4%, respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.14 billion, 1.21 billion, and 1.48 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 102.7%, 5.4%, and 22.3% [2] - Based on the closing price on October 31, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 19, 18, and 15 times for the years 2025 to 2027, with a "recommended" rating for investment [2]