美元霸权要凉了？各国狂买黄金超800吨，新风暴正在酝酿中

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices is reshaping the international financial landscape, with central banks increasing their gold reserves at a record pace, challenging the dominance of the US dollar [1][12]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Over the past year, gold prices have experienced unprecedented volatility, rising from $2,700 per ounce in October 2024 to $3,997 by October 31, 2025, with a peak of $4,300, indicating a nearly 48% depreciation of the dollar against gold [2]. - The global gold mining output is growing at an annual rate of only 1%, while demand from central banks remains near historical peaks, creating a structural imbalance in the gold market [8][10]. Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly acting as "new gold miners," with over 90% indicating plans to continue increasing their gold reserves, purchasing 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025, which could annualize to 800 tons, close to one-third of global gold production [3][5]. - This strategic shift is seen as a form of "insurance" against potential changes in the financial system, as countries move assets from the dollar to more stable gold [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Change - Factors such as expanding fiscal deficits in developed economies, high debt levels, and persistently low real yields are prompting investors to reassess traditional safe-haven assets, with gold transitioning from a speculative asset to a liquidity safeguard [6]. - The rise of digital currencies and advancements in cross-border payment systems are eroding the dollar's monopoly in global settlements, further driving the demand for gold [6]. Group 4: Emerging Market Strategies - Different emerging economies are adopting varied strategies in gold accumulation, with India investing approximately $12 billion in gold over the past year, while Pakistan has largely remained absent from this gold reserve competition [10]. - Pakistan's reliance on short-term borrowing and its fragile dollar-dependent reserve structure highlight potential vulnerabilities in its financial risk management [10]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that significant cycles in gold prices often coincide with changes in monetary systems, with past surges in gold prices indicating potential for another major turning point [12]. - Analysts believe that as central banks continue diversifying reserves and gold supply remains constrained, gold will increasingly serve as a critical tool for navigating financial uncertainties [12].