泸州老窖(000568)2025年三季报点评:控量稳价逐步出清

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, indicating resilience in performance despite industry challenges [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 231.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.62 billion yuan, down 7.17% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 66.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.80% and 13.07% respectively [1]. Product Performance - The company maintained a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices during the downturn, with stable pricing for high-end products [2]. - Lower-end products, particularly those with strong market foundations, performed better than high-end products [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margins for Q1-Q3 2025 were 87.11%, down 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to poor collection on high-end products [3]. - The sales and management expense ratios increased, indicating a reduction in scale effects due to declining revenue [3]. Contract Liabilities and Revenue Matching - As of Q3 2025, contract liabilities stood at 38.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.60%, reflecting normal quarterly fluctuations [4]. - Real revenue for Q3 2025, adjusted for contract liabilities, was 69.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.45% year-on-year, aligning with revenue growth trends [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 271 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 13.2%, followed by slight growth in subsequent years [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 for 2025, indicating a favorable investment recommendation [4].