Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by both internal growth and the consolidation of Renhe Environment's profits [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.21% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 605 million yuan, up 48.69% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 584 million yuan, reflecting a 55.54% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 685 million yuan, growing 6.23% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 205 million yuan, an increase of 47.64% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 was 199 million yuan, up 48.53% year-on-year [1] Growth Drivers - The integration of Renhe Environment since December 1, 2024, significantly boosted the company's profits, contributing to a 43.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders compared to the previous year [2] - Internal growth was supported by improved operational efficiency in waste incineration and contributions from the Liuyang and Pingjiang projects [2] - The company processed 2.7004 million tons of municipal waste from January to September 2025, a 7.89% increase year-on-year [2] - The electricity generated was 1.294 billion kWh, up 17.53% year-on-year [2] - The electricity generated per ton of waste was 479.10 kWh, reflecting a 4.72% increase year-on-year [2] - The collection of kitchen waste reached 305,700 tons, and the transfer processing of municipal waste was 2.4318 million tons [2] - Sales of industrial-grade mixed oil amounted to 22,600 tons [2] Cash Flow and Dividends - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.158 billion yuan, a 60.26% increase year-on-year, primarily due to the contribution from Renhe Environment [3] - Capital expenditures were 491 million yuan, a decrease of 11.9% year-on-year, mainly due to spending on the Bishkek project in Kyrgyzstan [3] - The company generated free cash flow of 667 million yuan, significantly up from 165 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The company maintained a dividend of 0.90 yuan per share from 2022 to 2024, with dividend payout ratios of 79.2%, 71.8%, and 94.6% respectively [3] - A long-term dividend return plan was announced, committing to a minimum payout ratio of 50% [3] New Projects and Market Expansion - New domestic projects in Liuyang (1,200 tons/day) and Pingjiang (600 tons/day) are expected to be operational by the end of 2024 to early 2025, driving growth in 2025 [4] - The company has signed agreements for waste treatment projects in Kyrgyzstan with a total processing capacity of 7,000 tons/day, with the first phase expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [4] - A preliminary tripartite agreement was signed with Almaty, Kazakhstan, for an investment of approximately 280 million USD to build solid waste power generation facilities [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 767 million yuan, 833 million yuan, and 902 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The expected EPS growth rates are -25.7% (due to dilution from a private placement), 8.6%, and 8.3% for the respective years [4] - Corresponding P/E ratios are estimated at 15.6x, 14.3x, and 13.2x [4] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating [4]
军信股份(301109)：主业稳健+仁和环境并表亮眼 Q3/Q1-3归母业绩同比增48%/49%