Where the blockbuster weight loss drug market stands today — and what's coming next

Core Insights - The weight loss and diabetes drug market is experiencing significant growth, driven by demand for effective treatments and new competitors entering the space [1][3] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk remain the leading companies, with Eli Lilly gaining market share and accounting for nearly 60% of prescriptions in the injectable obesity and diabetes class [2][9] - The market is projected to reach approximately $100 billion by the end of the decade, with a potential 25 to 50 million U.S. patients using GLP-1s by 2030 [3][12] Market Dynamics - Eli Lilly has outperformed Novo Nordisk, increasing its market share from 53% in Q1 to 57% in Q2 of the current year, attributed to superior efficacy and safety of its drugs [9][10] - Novo Nordisk is facing challenges, including a nearly 40% drop in stock value this year and a need to cut its workforce by 11.5% to regain market footing [11][14] - The competition is intensifying, with many pharmaceutical companies investing in obesity drugs, often through partnerships with smaller developers [4][42] Access and Coverage Issues - Access to GLP-1s remains limited due to insurance coverage gaps, with many insurers not covering obesity treatments, leading to high out-of-pocket costs for patients [5][23] - Coverage for GLP-1s for obesity has slightly increased, with 36% of surveyed companies providing such coverage, up from 34% in 2024 [24] - Employers are hesitant to cover these high-cost drugs due to concerns about long-term patient adherence and potential weight regain [25][28] Future Developments - Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are working on oral formulations of GLP-1s, which could significantly change market dynamics and improve patient access [30][34] - Analysts predict that oral pills could capture around 24% of the weight loss drug market by 2030, with Eli Lilly expected to lead this segment [34][35] - The success of new oral treatments will depend on their pricing and effectiveness compared to existing injectable options [40][39] Competitive Landscape - The market is seeing a variety of new entrants and experimental drugs, with companies exploring different mechanisms for weight loss and less frequent dosing [41][42] - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are also looking into new hormone-targeting treatments to expand their portfolios beyond current offerings [45][46] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with potential partnerships between smaller biotech firms and larger pharmaceutical companies to enhance drug development [51]