TCL TECH.(SZ:000100) Ju Chao Zi Xun·2025-11-02 13:05Core Insights - TCL Technology's display business, TCL Huaxing, has made significant progress in capacity integration, product structure optimization, and technological layout, with expectations for a positive development path driven by global sports events in 2026 and decreasing depreciation costs [1][3] Industry Outlook - The global trade friction has caused disruptions in supply chain inventory and consumer expectations, but recent trends indicate a easing of these frictions, which, combined with globalized supply chain strategies, creates favorable conditions for healthy industry development in 2026 [2][3] - The year 2026 is highlighted as a major sports year, with events like the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup expected to significantly boost television consumption, particularly for large-sized TVs. Demand for TV panels is projected to grow by approximately 1-2%, with demand area expected to increase by over 5% due to the trend towards larger sizes [3] Inventory and Production Strategy - TCL Technology maintains a strategy of producing based on demand to balance supply and demand in the industry. The current inventory levels are at the upper limit of normal, but are expected to gradually decrease to a reasonable low level as the sales season progresses [3] - The company is considering a potential 1-2 week production adjustment during the Spring Festival based on supply and demand conditions [3] Capacity Integration and Performance - The integration of the T11 production line has exceeded expectations, with smooth transitions completed in Q2 and full integration with the Huaxing system achieved in Q3. This production line is expected to contribute more significantly to the company's performance next year [3] - The T9 production line's second phase has shown significant improvements in capacity and product structure, with the small and medium-sized business becoming a core growth driver for display performance. In Q3, the company led the e-sports market in the IT sector with a 63% year-on-year increase in notebook sales [4] Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - The company's capital expenditure plans for the display business remain steady, focusing on new technologies and emerging application scenarios, while maintaining a top two position globally in production capacity and improving product structure [4] - The company anticipates that 2025 will be the peak year for depreciation due to new capacity coming online, but expects depreciation to decline starting in 2026, with a projected reduction of approximately 1 billion yuan compared to 2025 [5]