日元跌势难止 加息压力陡增

Core Viewpoint - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, faces a dilemma regarding the depreciating yen, which has reached an 8-month low, risking imported inflation while trying to support exports [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Impact - The yen has entered a depreciation phase, with the Bank of Japan maintaining its benchmark interest rate, disappointing investors and causing the yen to drop to 154.17 against the dollar [3]. - The Japanese government is increasingly concerned about the yen's depreciation, with the new Finance Minister warning of a heightened urgency to monitor the exchange rate, indicating a potential for direct intervention [3][4]. - Historical context shows that the Japanese authorities intervened in the forex market when the yen depreciated significantly, suggesting that current conditions may warrant similar actions [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by March 2026, driven by ongoing inflation pressures from the yen's depreciation [5]. - Recent data indicates that Japan's core consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the central bank's target and highlighting the inflationary challenges posed by the yen's decline [6]. - The continuous depreciation of the yen is exacerbating imported inflation, which is putting pressure on the cost of living for Japanese citizens [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - Takaichi's proposed economic policies, termed "Sanae Economics," are seen as a continuation of Abenomics, focusing on expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy to stimulate demand [5][7]. - While these policies may provide short-term economic growth and boost market confidence, they also pose long-term risks, including increased government debt and potential financial instability [7]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a complex interplay between the need for monetary tightening due to inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal stance, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [6][7].