11月2日重大：金价下周将迎大风暴是抄底良机还是万丈深渊？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices fluctuating around $4000 per ounce, influenced by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - The recent drop in international gold prices from a historical high of $4390 per ounce to $3987 per ounce, a nearly 9% decline, was primarily due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar [3][5] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are still in an overbought territory, indicating a need for further adjustment despite recent stabilization [5] - Demand for gold has temporarily weakened as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases with a stronger dollar, leading to reduced investor interest [5] Group 2: Long-term Support Factors - Long-term support for gold remains strong due to persistent inflation, with the U.S. core PCE index still above the 2% target and long-term inflation expectations around 2.5% [3][6] - Central banks globally, including those in Russia and India, have increased their gold holdings by a total of 126 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a significant boost to the gold market [3][6] - Geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the dollar system also contribute to long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid speculative buying in the short term and consider accumulating gold if prices fall below $3800 per ounce, as this level represents a long-term support point [8] - For long-term investment, gold should be included as part of an asset allocation strategy, with a recommended allocation of 10-15% to hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation [9] - The upcoming price movements will reflect a battle between short-term expectations and long-term trends, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investment in gold [9]