黄金遭遇打击！鹰派降息与地缘缓和共振，技术面超买引发回调！

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant adjustment in October 2025, with gold prices dropping over 10% from a historical high of $4,381 per ounce, briefly falling below the psychological level of $4,000 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - The primary factor for the gold price drop was the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cut," which reduced the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on October 30, 2025 [3]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut fell from 85% to 76% following the Fed's announcement, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold [5]. - A shift in market risk appetite, due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a one-year trade truce agreement, reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5]. - Technical corrections from an overbought condition in the gold market also contributed to the price decline, with historical patterns indicating potential corrections of over 20% following similar overbought situations [5]. Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold - Despite short-term volatility, the core logic supporting gold remains strong, driven by ongoing central bank purchases, a confirmed downtrend in interest rates, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties [6][8]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks net purchased 902 tons of gold, providing a solid bottom support for international gold prices [8]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is strengthening, with many central banks reducing their dollar reserves, which positively impacts gold's monetary attributes [8]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives on Gold - Investment institutions exhibit varied short-term outlooks on gold, but there is a rare consensus on a long-term bullish stance [11][13]. - Citibank expresses caution regarding short-term price movements, suggesting a potential drop back to $3,800 within three months [13]. - In contrast, banks like UOB and JPMorgan are more optimistic, raising their gold price forecasts for late 2025 and 2026, with predictions reaching $4,300 per ounce by the third quarter of 2026 [13][15]. Group 4: Investment Strategies in Gold - As the gold market enters a phase of "slow growth and repeated fluctuations," investment strategies should shift from chasing trends to patient holding and opportunistic buying [15][17]. - Experts recommend maintaining a minimum allocation of 3% for gold in investment portfolios, with a reasonable range of 5%-10% for individual investors [17]. - The rise in trading volumes for micro gold contracts and one-ounce gold futures indicates a significant return of retail investors to the market [19].