关税暴击假日季！美国消费者多掏 406 亿，通胀压得钱包喘不过气

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be impacted by tariffs, potentially costing consumers an additional $40.6 billion in 2024, which translates to an extra burden on holiday spending [1] Economic Impact - Tariffs were implemented by the Trump administration in April, contributing to persistent inflation rates between 2.5% and 3% [3] - Economists note that while inflation indicators like CPI and PCE are not skyrocketing, tariffs have prevented prices from decreasing, keeping inflation elevated [3] Corporate Response - Companies initially absorbed tariff costs by stockpiling inventory and compressing profit margins, but as holiday demand increases, they are now passing these costs onto consumers [5] - According to U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave, consumers are expected to bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs, with the remainder absorbed by businesses [6] Federal Reserve Concerns - The Federal Reserve aims to stabilize core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2%, but this target has not been met since March 2021, with current rates remaining high [8] - U.S. Bank predicts that tariffs could increase the core PCE inflation rate by 0.5 percentage points, with September's inflation rate at 2.9% when tariffs are included, compared to 2.4% without [8] Consumer Sentiment - Rising prices for everyday items, such as coffee and furniture, are evident, with clothing prices increasing by 0.7% in September, affecting consumer perception of inflation [10] - Analysts from TD Cowen emphasize that even minor price increases in low-weight items can significantly impact consumer confidence, as frequent price changes create a more immediate perception of inflation [12] Seasonal Product Impact - Seasonal products, like artificial Christmas trees, exemplify how high tariffs can influence consumer perceptions of inflation during the holiday season [13]