美联储主席放缓降息节奏，市场预期急转直下，投资者恐面临20点大跌

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed significant internal disagreements among its members, with one advocating for substantial interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy while another opposed this view, marking a rare occurrence since 2000 [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current policy management as "driving in the fog," highlighting the unprecedented challenges faced by policymakers in navigating conflicting economic data [3][9] - The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the flow of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process and forcing reliance on alternative data sources [5][13] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reflects differing time preferences among decision-makers, with some prioritizing immediate market stability while others prefer to wait for more comprehensive information [3] - Powell emphasized that while the job market is slowing, there are no signs of rapid deterioration, indicating a cautious approach within the FOMC [5] - The current policy interest rate range has been lowered to 3.75% to 4.0%, with estimates for the neutral rate between 3% and 4%, suggesting a more accommodative stance compared to the past [9] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The Fed's decisions directly impact borrowing costs for households, with mortgage rates showing limited immediate response but significant implications for housing market expectations [11] - Small business owners report ongoing pressure from tight financing conditions, as evidenced by their cash flow statements and loan extension records [11] - The disconnect between survey data and market indicators highlights the vulnerability of macroeconomic policy in times of information scarcity, necessitating careful risk and timing assessments by policymakers [13] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Following the Fed's meeting, volatility in futures markets, stock indices, and credit spreads became evident, illustrating the impact of information asymmetry on market reactions [15] - Powell's cautious strategy aims to gather more observable data before making further policy adjustments, reflecting the tension between market concerns and policy stability [15] - The recent dissent within the FOMC serves as a reminder that monetary policy is a limited tool requiring robust information flow and adequate time buffers for effective implementation [15]