全球稀土三十年争霸战：中国如何从47%份额到绝对主导

Core Insights - The global rare earth industry has undergone significant changes over the past thirty years, with China increasing its market share from 47% to 70% and controlling 90% of the refining capacity, establishing itself as the dominant player in this resource competition [1][5][19] Production and Market Share - In 1994, China's rare earth oxide (REO) production was approximately 31,000 tons, accounting for about 47% of global output, while the Mountain Pass mine in the U.S. was the largest producer [3][19] - By 2024, China's REO production has reached 270,000 tons, representing nearly 70% of global production, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [5][19] - The U.S. rare earth production is projected to be around 46,000 tons in 2024, which, despite recovery, remains significantly lower than China's output [3][5] Technological Advancements - China has made significant technological breakthroughs, such as improving the recovery rate of rare earths to 78% through intelligent sorting technology, a 15 percentage point increase since 2020 [5] - Innovations in biometallurgy have reduced mining costs by 30%, and advancements in neodymium-iron-boron magnetic material technology have enhanced product performance by 20% [7] Export and Import Dynamics - In the first nine months of 2025, China's rare earth permanent magnet material exports increased by 27%, with international prices rising by 18% since the beginning of the year [8] - In September 2025, China's rare earth exports reached 4,000.3 tons, with total exports for the first nine months amounting to 48,355.7 tons, while imports for the same month were 6,864.7 tons [8] Resource Distribution and Competitiveness - China holds the largest rare earth reserves globally, with 44 million tons, while Brazil, India, and Russia follow with significantly lower reserves [10] - The competition in the rare earth industry extends beyond resource availability to include deep processing technology, with China holding 41% of global PCT international patents in rare earth permanent magnets and catalytic materials [12] Strategic Responses from Other Countries - In response to China's dominance, the U.S. and EU are actively seeking to diversify their supply sources, collaborating with countries like Australia, Canada, and Japan to ensure resource security [14][15] - The U.S. has invested $120 million to restart domestic rare earth production, aiming for a capacity of 2,000 tons by 2025, which is minimal compared to China's annual production of 390,000 tons [15][20] Future Outlook - The next decade will see continued focus on technological innovation and supply chain security in the rare earth industry, driven by growing demand in sectors like renewable energy and aerospace [20]