“银十”重卡销量同比涨4成 实现七连涨

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in October 2025, driven by the old truck replacement policy, with sales reaching approximately 93,000 units, marking a 40% year-on-year increase despite a 12% month-on-month decline from September [1][4]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the heavy truck market sold around 93,000 units, the second-highest level in the past eight years, only lower than October 2020's 137,500 units [4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 exceeded 916,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 22%, with expectations to surpass 1 million units by the end of November [4]. Market Trends - The heavy truck market has experienced seven consecutive months of growth from April to October 2025, with an average growth rate of 39% during this period [1]. - The terminal sales of heavy trucks have been strong, with significant year-on-year increases observed from April to October, particularly in September with a 92% increase [4]. Export Growth - Heavy truck exports have also shown steady growth, with October 2025 expected to see a nearly 10% year-on-year increase in export wholesale volume, leading to an annual export total exceeding 300,000 units [5]. Policy Impact - The growth in the heavy truck market is largely attributed to the "old-for-new" policy for operational trucks, which has been a significant driver since April 2025 [8]. - Despite some local governments suspending subsidies due to fiscal constraints, the reactivation of subsidies in certain areas and the impending deadline for the policy are expected to sustain high growth rates in November [8]. Segment Performance - In October 2025, the terminal sales of natural gas heavy trucks are projected to have doubled year-on-year, while electric heavy trucks are expected to see a 140% increase [9][10]. - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks reached nearly 28% in October, driven by the old-for-new policy and upcoming tax incentives for electric vehicles [10]. - Diesel heavy trucks also contributed to growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in terminal sales for October [11].