华鲁恒升(600426)：景气波动 韧性强劲

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.55 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.37 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year and 6.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 2.36 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring items, a decline of 23.0% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 11.4%, down 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Conditions - The overall product market faced pressure in Q3 2025, with significant price changes for key products: urea (-5.5%), DMF (-1.0%), and acetic acid (-7.8%) [2] - The company’s major raw materials saw price fluctuations, with coal prices increasing by 20.2% in Q3 2025, impacting profitability [2] Industry Outlook - The industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to capacity reduction, while new projects in Jingzhou are expected to provide incremental growth [3] - The market prices for key products in Q4 2025 are projected to decline further, with urea prices down 8.6% and DMF down 4.0% [3] Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding into fine chemicals and new materials to enhance product value, with ongoing projects in both the Dezhou and Jingzhou bases [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.01 billion yuan, 4.00 billion yuan, and 4.50 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]