铁矿石供需转弱维持震荡，棕榈油连续下跌

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market experienced mixed performance from October 27 to October 31, with energy and chemical sectors leading the decline, while the black metal sector saw gains [1] - In the domestic futures market, fuel oil fell by 2.45%, and crude oil decreased by 1.33%. Conversely, iron ore rose by 3.76%, coking coal increased by 3.00%, and coking coal saw a rise of 1.11% [1] Iron Ore Market Dynamics - Iron ore futures showed a "strong then weak" trend, with the main contract I2601 initially rebounding to 810.5 CNY/ton before closing at 800 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 3.76% [2] - Global iron ore shipments reached 33.884 million tons, up by 549,000 tons week-on-week, with Australian and Brazilian shipments also increasing significantly [2][3] - Domestic iron ore production remains high, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.96% and daily output of 476,400 tons, indicating ample supply [2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side remains robust, with both domestic and imported iron ore production at high levels, while demand is weakening due to reduced steel production and profit margins [2][3] - Steel mills are actively reducing inventory, leading to a decrease in imported iron ore stock by 2.2933 million tons, although available days increased to 21 days [3] Palm Oil Market Trends - Palm oil futures saw a significant decline, with the main contract closing at 8,764 CNY/ton, down 3.92% for the week, attributed to reduced trading activity and cautious market sentiment [4][5] - Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% by 2025, while Malaysia's production and inventory levels are also showing a surplus [5][6] - Demand pressures are evident, particularly from India, where palm oil imports fell to 829,000 tons in September, the lowest since May [5][6] Economic Indicators and Policy Impacts - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction have led to a stronger dollar and mixed global asset prices, impacting commodity markets [7][8] - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, driven by reduced production and new orders, which may affect commodity demand [9][10] Future Market Outlook - The black metal sector is expected to face challenges due to macroeconomic disturbances and declining steel production, while the basic metals sector may experience short-term fluctuations due to weak supply and demand dynamics [12] - The agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is under pressure from policy interventions and supply-demand imbalances, leading to potential price declines [12]