吉祥航空(603885)：发动机维修拖累盈利 关注飞机利用率回升

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations due to declining ticket prices and engine maintenance issues affecting aircraft utilization, leading to increased costs and a decrease in net profit [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 6.41 billion yuan, a decline of 2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 19.5% due to a larger decline in unit revenue compared to unit costs [4]. Operational Data - The company's fleet size at the end of Q3 2025 was 130 aircraft, with a net increase of 3 aircraft for the year [1]. - The passenger load factor improved by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 86.6%, despite a decrease in capacity [1]. - Domestic route ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) decreased by 7% year-on-year, while international route ASK increased by 19% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Analysis - Q3 unit revenue per RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometer) was 0.502 yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, and unit revenue per ASK was 0.435 yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling ticket prices [1]. Cost Analysis - Q3 unit ASK operating cost was 0.350 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, with expected unit fuel costs down 11% due to falling oil prices, while non-fuel costs rose by 8% due to engine maintenance issues [2]. Future Outlook - The industry supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a positive outlook for ticket prices and high passenger load factors in Q4, despite being a traditionally low season [4]. - Long-term supply chain constraints are anticipated to limit industry supply, which may enhance profitability for airlines [4]. - Favorable expectations for oil prices and exchange rates are expected to support profit recovery [4]. Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.003 billion yuan, 1.631 billion yuan, and 2.289 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [5].