丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 客运景气复苏，货运提质增效 ——交运行业 2025Q4 前瞻 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们对交运各子行业 2025 年四季度基本面变化进行梳理，并对行业四季度经营情况进行前瞻 性预判：1）航空：需求边际改善，Q4 大幅减亏；2）机场：流量爬坡，盈利改善；3）快递快 运：快递行业降速提质，"反内卷"驱动盈利改善；4）物流：供应链业绩底部企稳，跨境物流 景气修复；5）海运：油散延续改善，集运盈利承压；6）港口：散杂货延续改善，集装箱仍有 韧性；7）高速公路：增长有限，盈利稳定；8）铁路：客运增速加快，货运增速放缓。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Ta ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 20 日 首支船舶产业指数基金发布，油 ...

坚定看好多重催化下的航空，关注单票收入同比改善的快递 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 20 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 南方航空 | 7.70 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.54 | -33.48 | -85.56 | 25.50 | 17.67 | 14.14 | 买入 买入 | | | | 中国东航 | 5.77 | -0.37 ...

上海作为"一带一路"重要节点城市和长三角一体化核心引擎，政策红利叠加区位优势，为公司提供了拓 展国际市场的战略机遇。公司紧抓上海"五个中心"建设契机，加速布局以上海为始发点的国际国内航 线，国际影响力持续扩大。 基于上海浦东、虹桥机场时刻资源紧张的背景，公司在主基地战略指导下先后设立了南京辅助基地及成 都辅助基地。作为长三角核心城市，南京辐射苏皖及中西部地区，其禄口机场的国际航线网络为公司提 供了客源基础与拓展空间。江苏分公司重点拓展南京国际通程航班业务，多维度提升对客服务品质，推 动生产经营提质增速。成都作为西部最大航空市场，地处欧亚航路中点，是连接中东、东南亚与中国东 部的重要枢纽。四川分公司立足成都区位优势，重点开发川渝客源。四川分公司通过稳定市场联营、扩 大渠道数量、提高团队销量等手段，优化属地销售策略、提升国际销售占比，多举措并举稳定票价、提 升客座率，保障航班收益稳定。 就地域而言，吉祥航空的目标客户主要定位在上海及周边城市圈的长江三角洲地区。就群体而言，主要 定位于中高端商务、旅行及休闲客户。上海及长三角地区是我国第一大经济引擎，是我国经济发展最 快、商务活动最为频繁的区域，也是重要的制造业基地 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Juneyao Airlines announced the pledge of 12.5 million shares by its controlling shareholder, Shanghai Juneyao (Group) Co., Ltd [2] Group 2 - The announcement was made on the evening of December 19 [2] - The pledged shares represent a portion of the shares held by the controlling shareholder [2]

公司于近日收到公司控股股东均瑶集团通知，获悉其将所持有公司的部分股 份办理了质押业务，具体事项如下： 一、本次股东股份质押基本情况： 注：若有尾差，则是因四舍五入所致。 证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2025-086 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 关于控股股东股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东上海均瑶（集 团）有限公司（以下简称"均瑶集团"）持有公司股份 971,886,975 股， 占公司股份总数的 44.50%，均瑶集团累计质押公司股票（含本次）70,100 万股，占其所持公司股份数的 72.13%，占公司股份总数的 32.10%。 上述质押股份不存在被用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或其他保 障用途的情形。 单位：万股 股东 名称 是否为 控股股 东 本次质 押股数 是否为限售 股（如是，注 明限售类型） 是否补 充质押 质押起 始日 质押到 期日 质权人 占其所 持股份 比例 占公司总 股本比例 ...

Core Insights - The aviation industry experienced an expansion in supply and demand growth year-on-year in November, with domestic routes showing significant improvement and international routes surpassing 2019 levels [1][3] - The overall passenger load factor increased by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, with domestic routes seeing a 2.1 percentage point increase to 86.6% [1] - Despite short-term demand pressure on China-Japan international routes, the long-term recovery trend remains intact, supported by resilient demand and price elasticity [3] Industry Performance - In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019 [1] - Domestic routes saw supply and demand growth of 4.2% and 6.8%, while international routes experienced a more robust increase of 15.0% and 20.7% [1] - The three major airlines reported a supply and demand increase of 6.7% and 10.3% year-on-year, with Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factor at 87.4% [2] Airline-Specific Insights - Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines led in passenger load factors among private carriers, with Spring Airlines achieving a 92.3% load factor [2] - China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery in load factor, increasing by 3.9 percentage points to 83.3% in November [2] - Hainan Airlines and China National Airlines are highlighted as preferred investment choices due to their performance and recovery potential [3]

Group 1: Airline Industry Performance - In November 2025, the six major listed airlines in China achieved a total passenger transport volume of approximately 48.615 million, representing an 18.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1] - China National Airlines led with a passenger transport volume of 13.0717 million, including 1.6374 million on international routes, which is a 19.7% increase from 2019 [1] - The international routes became a key growth driver, with a total of 6.305 million passengers transported, marking a 16.6% increase compared to 2019 [1] Group 2: Capacity and Load Factor - The overall load factor for the six major airlines remained high, with Spring Airlines leading at 92.3%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from 2019 [2] - Other airlines also reported healthy load factors: China Eastern Airlines at 87.4% (up 7.2 percentage points), China Southern Airlines at 86.3%, and China National Airlines at 83.3% [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategy - The aviation industry is experiencing a clear pattern of "overall recovery with internal differentiation," with hub airlines leveraging their network advantages for steady growth [3] - Private airlines like Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines are adopting flexible strategies to penetrate international markets, showcasing significant results [3] - The competition is shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement, indicating a transition towards high-quality development in the aviation sector [3] Group 4: Airbus A320 Production Milestone - Airbus delivered its 800th A320 series aircraft from the Tianjin assembly line, marking a significant milestone in its operations in China [5] - The A321neo aircraft, received by China National Airlines, features advanced engines and a comfortable cabin layout, reflecting Airbus's commitment to enhancing its production capabilities in China [5] - The establishment of a second A320 assembly line in Tianjin further strengthens Airbus's global production network, which includes ten assembly lines worldwide [5][8] Group 5: Sustainable Aviation Initiatives - The A320neo series aircraft is designed to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% compared to previous generations [6] - Airbus aims for all its aircraft to operate on up to 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, highlighting its commitment to sustainability in aviation [6] Group 6: Localization and Global Integration - The delivery of the 800th A320 aircraft signifies China's evolution from a market and component supplier to a core assembly and delivery center in the global aviation manufacturing landscape [8] - This development underscores the quality and efficiency of China's high-end manufacturing system, aligning with international standards in aircraft manufacturing [8]

要的是稀缺结构 有业界观察人士L总感叹，疯狂扩张的中国航司实在没地方可以飞了，只能变着法地飞欧洲。 那为什么是布鲁塞尔？最直接的原因是布鲁塞尔是小机场，时刻比较宽松，航司有更大的动力参与其中。 国航近日宣布，将于明年3月下旬连续开通两条国内直飞布鲁塞尔航线，把一个原本由海航主导的航点，直接推入正面竞争。 环球旅讯评论员高思伟对此表示认同。他指出，在中国庞大的机队规模和稳定的飞行员队伍支撑下，航空公司仍需要积极开拓新的国际航点，优化海外航 线布局、开拓新航点，以充分利用现有运力。 布鲁塞尔的吸引力，虽然不像巴黎、法兰克福那样热闹，但它拥有三重稀缺价值：稳定的高端政商客源、可早期贡献现金流的腹舱货运，以及能放大欧洲 网络的枢纽节点属性——这才是海航、国航同时加码的原因。 对西南市场而言，这一变化尤为显著。此前从成都前往布鲁塞尔需在第三城市中转，耗时15至20小时；直飞开通后，飞行时间压缩至11小时，节省近8小 时。 竞争的焦点也因此变得清晰：北京线硬刚、成都线切西南、上海线拼频次。 国航入场之前，国内航司长期由海航主导布鲁塞尔航线，吉祥航空作为补充。 3月24日，北京—布鲁塞尔航线将正式运营，两天后，成都—布鲁塞 ...

。。 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 航空运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 淡季客座率持续高位，供需反转有望推动票价回升 [Table_Industry] 航空运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 17 日 陈依晗 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525110002 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 航空运输月度专题：淡季客座率持续高位， 供需反转有望推动票价回升 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 17 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事 ...