贵金属价格缘何坐上“过山车”？

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has experienced extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations in gold and silver, driven by various market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices surged, breaking through key levels of $4100, $4200, and $4300 per ounce, reaching historical peaks [1]. - Silver prices also saw a remarkable increase, surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time in 45 years [1]. - On October 21, a historic flash crash occurred, with gold prices dropping by 5.74% to $4109.1 per ounce and silver prices falling by 7.16% to $47.70 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Changes - A significant factor for the price drop was the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly the indication from Ukraine's President that the country is ready to end the conflict with Russia, which reduced the demand for safe-haven assets [2]. - The strengthening of the US dollar also played a crucial role, as a rising dollar index increased the cost of purchasing precious metals for investors holding other currencies [2]. - Profit-taking from previous gains and technical indicators showing overbought conditions contributed to the intensified sell-off [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Barclays analysts noted that despite the short-term pullback, the over 50% increase in gold prices this year reflects ongoing distrust in the global financial and monetary order, which remains a key driver [3]. - Factors such as central bank gold purchases, retail demand for gold, and rising production costs continue to provide support for prices [3]. - However, there are warnings about the potential for further declines, especially in the silver market, which is more volatile due to its smaller market size compared to gold [3].