Group 1 - The bond market shows signs of recovery in Q4, with a focus on the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) due to fundamental pressures and a supportive policy environment [1] - Despite the U.S. canceling a 10% tariff on fentanyl, a 20% tariff on Chinese goods remains, impacting small and medium enterprises, which are experiencing a continuous contraction in manufacturing PMI [1] - Weak domestic demand and low social investment returns limit the upward space for interest rates, while short-term impacts of anti-involution policies create pressure on the macro economy, supporting the bond market [1] Group 2 - The central bank maintains a loose liquidity stance, with plans to resume government bond trading operations, which is expected to positively impact the bond market [1] - Factors that suppressed the bond market in Q3 are gradually dissipating, and institutional investors are beginning to position for the next year's allocation, suggesting better performance for the bond market in Q4 compared to Q3 [1]
四季度债市逐步显现回暖迹象，关注十年国债ETF（511260）
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-03 01:16