金荣中国：美政府停摆进入关键一周，金价扩大回落加剧震荡

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on October 31, with an opening price of $4001.92 per ounce, a high of $4046.19, a low of $3989.09, and a closing price of $4012.84 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that restrictive policies pose risks to the labor market and predicted a potential rate cut in December [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials opposed the idea of a rate cut, with Dallas Fed President Logan stating that last week's decision to not cut rates was appropriate, and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt expressing concerns about economic growth and inflation [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that if inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve should proceed with further rate cuts, noting that the preferred PCE inflation rate remains at 2.7% [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 69.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.2% [5] Group 2: Government Shutdown and Negotiations - The U.S. government shutdown is entering a critical week, with Democratic senators urging President Trump to engage in negotiations to end the shutdown [3] - The negotiations include discussions on the upcoming expiration of the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which could significantly increase healthcare costs for millions of Americans [3] - President Trump emphasized the importance of tariffs in negotiations with other countries, stating that failure to utilize tariffs could lead to significant disadvantages for the U.S. [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices showed volatility, with the highest price reaching $4046 and the lowest at $3989 during the trading session [7] - The daily chart indicates a slight bearish trend, with short-term indicators showing a downward crossover, suggesting a potential peak [7] - The hourly chart reflects that gold prices are stabilizing below the 144-hour moving average resistance, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [7]