煤炭旺季需求显韧性，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）大涨超2%

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing strong demand resilience due to the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to higher-than-expected coal prices. The coal sector's supply-demand dynamics are improving, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The probability of a cold winter is increasing due to the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to persist from December 2025 to February 2026, potentially leading to lower temperatures in China's central and eastern regions [2]. - The current weather conditions, characterized by high temperatures in the south and sudden drops in temperature in the north, are significantly driving up coal consumption [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The coal supply is being constrained by government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, with national coal production in July and August at 380 million and 390 million tons, respectively, which is below the average monthly production of approximately 400 million tons over the past year and a half [2]. - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with expectations of a slight decline in production in Q4 due to ongoing checks for overproduction [2][3]. - The central government's environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are causing disruptions in open-pit mining operations, further impacting coal production [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints and rising winter demand, with both thermal and coking coal prices having upward elasticity [4]. - Current prices for thermal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for potential rebounds, supported by the supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has seen significant growth, exceeding 13 billion yuan, and offers a high dividend yield of over 5.3% as of September 30, making it an attractive investment option [5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on the investment opportunities within the coal sector [5].