Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 03:29Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that by Q3 2025, listed securities firms are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 169 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.38% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Investment business net income is projected to increase by 44.92% to 197.2 billion yuan, significantly impacting adjusted revenue changes [1] - Brokerage business is expected to grow the fastest, with a year-on-year increase of 74.64% [1] Group 2: Business Opportunities - There is a recommendation to focus on securities firms that are likely to enhance their retail business share, potentially through controlling stakes in leading public funds, as well as those with significant profit contributions and strong international business [1] - The report highlights that the gradual formation of resident allocation power favors securities firms with competitive advantages in retail business [1] Group 3: Market Trends - The shift from rapid interest rate decline to low-level fluctuations is leading residents to gradually increase their equity allocations [1] - The transition from vertical traffic to public domain traffic is expected to benefit firms that adapt to business model transformations [1] - The "Bond + Equity" strategy is anticipated to be a core driver for new resident market entrants, with a focus on securities firms that control leading public funds [1] Group 4: International Business Growth - The Belt and Road Initiative and corporate globalization strategies are generating substantial cross-border financial demand [1] - As reforms in China's capital market investment side progress, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to increase, leading to a growing demand from overseas investors for allocation in Chinese assets [1] - International business is projected to become a new performance growth engine for leading securities firms [1]