股指 调整后仍具备上行动能

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a rally, with small-cap stocks gaining strength while large-cap stocks weakened [1] - Major indices showed divergence, with the STAR Market 50 index leading the decline at 3.2%, while the CSI 1000 index led the gains at 1.18% [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating contraction due to pre-holiday demand release and external factors [2] - Production and new orders indices also declined, with production at 49.7% (down 2.2 points) and new orders at 48.8% (down 0.9 points) [2] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [2] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second consecutive cut [3] - The Fed's statement indicated a moderate expansion in economic activity and persistent high inflation, with employment growth slowing [3][4] - Despite hawkish signals from Powell, there remains room for further rate cuts, which could lead to a return to a low-interest-rate environment globally [4] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of "stagflation," with employment risks increasing, but the likelihood of significant inflation remains low [4] - China's economy has been stabilizing since Q4 of last year, supporting the potential for RMB appreciation and increased foreign capital inflow [4][5] - Overall, despite recent market adjustments, the fundamentals remain supportive, with improving corporate earnings and a favorable outlook for the manufacturing sector [5]