1103黄金早评：美联储表态偏鹰叠加税收新政，黄金或延续震荡表现

Core Viewpoint - In October, London spot gold experienced a volatile month, rising by 3.76% to $4002.69 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4381.484 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors including U.S. political instability and renewed trade tensions with China [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The U.S. government shutdown has highlighted political polarization, weakening the long-term credibility of the dollar and U.S. assets [1] - The ongoing government closure has led to negative economic and employment expectations, reinforcing market speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. President has escalated trade tensions, increasing global economic uncertainty and systemic risks [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - A sudden joint statement from Ukraine regarding the Russia-Ukraine war indicated a softening stance from Ukraine and major European countries, which significantly eased geopolitical tensions and impacted gold prices [1] - Progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a meeting between the two countries' leaders further reduced market risk aversion [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently focused on the ongoing developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampening December rate cut expectations, and the easing of U.S.-China relations [2] - The lack of clear bullish factors for gold suggests potential for continued volatility or a bearish trend, with investors advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach or consider buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective [2] Group 4: Tax Policy Impact - A recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold tax policies indicates that investment gold can enjoy immediate VAT refunds, but resale will only allow for ordinary invoices, increasing the tax burden on physical gold investments [2]