怪事！近一个世纪最严厉的关税下，美国经济为何还未崩溃？

Core Insights - Despite initial fears of inflation and recession due to tariffs, the actual impact has been less severe than anticipated, with the U.S. economy continuing to grow [1] - Tariff revenues collected by the U.S. Treasury are significantly lower than predicted, indicating that the expected benefits of tariffs have not materialized [1] Tariff Revenue and Effective Tax Rates - The effective average tax rate paid by companies is approximately 12.5%, which is lower than the estimated 17% statutory rate due to loopholes and exemptions [2] - Many companies have shifted production to countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey, further reducing the effective tax rate [2] Corporate Strategies to Mitigate Tariff Costs - Companies are stockpiling inventory before tariffs take effect and utilizing bonded warehouses to minimize tariff costs [2] - U.S. companies have only passed a portion of the tariff costs onto consumers, with estimates suggesting that consumers have absorbed 50%-70% of the costs [3] Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, manufacturers are estimated to have absorbed about 80% of the tariff costs, only passing 20% onto consumers, due to higher profit margins post-pandemic [4] - Retailers, such as Aritzia, have shown resilience against tariff impacts, maintaining profitability despite facing high tariffs on imports [4] Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by a strong stock market and low unemployment, despite initial concerns about reduced consumer confidence [5] - Economists caution that the long-term effects of tariffs may still lead to increased costs for consumers as companies gradually raise prices [5]