SDIC Power(SH:600886) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-03 04:30Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year for the third quarter of 2025, but showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, maintaining a "buy" rating due to optimistic views on integrated development in renewable energy [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.876 billion yuan, down 13.98% year-on-year but up 18.29% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year but up 58.62% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported revenue of 40.572 billion yuan, down 8.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.517 billion yuan, down 0.92% year-on-year [1]. Power Generation Insights - The company's thermal power generation saw a significant decline in output, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.61% in Q3 2025, totaling 12.320 billion kWh, primarily due to increased hydropower generation in southern provinces [2]. - The average coal price for thermal power generation decreased significantly, which helped to offset the pressure on profit margins despite lower electricity trading prices [2]. Hydropower Performance - The Yalong River hydropower output in Q3 2025 decreased by 16.03% year-on-year to 28.165 billion kWh, attributed to lower water levels during the main flood season [3]. - Despite the challenges in Q4 2025, the company expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit due to a one-time tax payment in Q4 2024 that affected previous results [3]. Renewable Energy Developments - The company experienced a slowdown in the pace of new renewable energy installations, with no new capacity added in Q3 2025, primarily due to pressure on electricity prices and declining profitability [3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 1.57% and 38.13% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 5.062 billion kWh and 4.928 billion kWh [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 7.2 billion, 7.5 billion, and 7.8 billion yuan, respectively, with a target market value of 138.9 billion yuan and a target price of 17.35 yuan per share [4].