鲍威尔已提前变成“跛脚鸭”？“老债王”做出选择：抛售美债！

Group 1 - The stock market has risen for six consecutive months, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and a loose financial environment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is "far from certain," with a split among officials regarding the decision [1][2] - The bond market reacted sharply, with significant increases in bond yields and a rise in the dollar, as the likelihood of a December rate cut dropped from 90% to about 50% [1] Group 2 - The divergence in opinions within the Federal Reserve complicates the balance between inflation and employment, leading to potential inefficacies in bond trading strategies [2] - Bill Gross, a prominent investor, is selling U.S. Treasury futures, betting on high fiscal deficits and massive debt issuance to continue pushing yields higher [2][5] - The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 2% despite bond market volatility, indicating resilience in tech stocks [3] Group 3 - High U.S. Treasury yields make holding cash in dollars more attractive for global investors, potentially supporting the dollar against major currencies [4] - Morgan Stanley's currency trading team shifted to a neutral stance on the dollar after previously being bearish, suggesting a change in market sentiment [4] - TS Lombard is betting that U.S. short-term rates will exceed Japan's by year-end, reflecting differing central bank policy paths [4] Group 4 - Bill Gross warns of excessive risks in the U.S. financial system due to expanding deficits and a weakening dollar, maintaining a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries [5]