倒反天罡？美国经济正变得越来越依赖股市

Core Insights - The distinction between Wall Street and Main Street is becoming increasingly blurred as rising asset prices stimulate consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of the US GDP [1] - The "wealth effect" has become more pronounced over the past 15 years, with a 1% increase in stock wealth leading to a 0.05% increase in consumer spending, compared to less than 0.02% in 2010 [1] - The increase in household wealth is making consumers more optimistic about their financial situations, leading to increased spending [1] Group 1 - The wealth effect is expected to drive higher marginal propensity to consume in the coming years, particularly as retirees, who have higher net worth, rely more on their wealth for consumption [1] - The omnipresence of digital media accelerates consumer reactions to market news, further enhancing the wealth effect [2] - Consumer spending has remained resilient despite challenges such as inflation and uncertainty from trade wars, largely due to the stock market's performance, particularly in AI-related stocks [2] Group 2 - The stock market's dependence on AI-related companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google is increasing, with estimates suggesting that the tech sector's stock market gains over the past year could boost annual consumer spending by nearly $250 billion [2] - A survey indicates that over 54% of Americans with annual incomes between $30,000 and $79,900 are retail investors, with many having started investing in the past five years [3] - The wealth effect is particularly pronounced among the highest income earners, who contributed half of total consumer spending in the second quarter, marking a historical high [3] Group 3 - The economy is increasingly reliant on discretionary spending from high-income earners, which in turn depends on the continued prosperity of risk assets [4] - This dynamic creates a stronger implicit support mechanism for risk assets, as both monetary and fiscal policies are likely to focus on sustaining the stock market [4] - The interconnectedness of the stock market and overall consumer spending suggests that declines in asset prices could slow spending and economic growth [4]