Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 06:19Core Insights - Global TV shipments are projected to fall below 50 million units for the first time in history in Q3 2025, with an estimated 49.75 million units, reflecting a 4.9% year-over-year decline and a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - The decline is attributed to extended consumer purchase cycles, changes in international circumstances affecting demand, and the diminishing effects of subsidy policies in the Chinese market [1] - Despite the overall decline, a seasonal sales surge is expected in Q4 due to promotional activities in Europe and North America, as well as China's Double 11 and Double 12 shopping events, leading to an estimated 7.3% quarter-over-quarter increase in global shipments to 53.21 million units [1] Market Share and Brand Performance - The top five brands in Q3 2025 by shipment volume are Samsung, Hisense, TCL, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding a market share of 64.3% [4] - Hisense regained its position as the second-largest global TV brand in Q3 2025, with shipments reaching 7.66 million units, a 9.7% quarter-over-quarter increase, and a market share of 15.4%, marking a record high for the brand [4] Size Segment Trends - The penetration rate of large-sized TVs (60 inches and above) has reached 28.2% for the first time, driven by demand in the Chinese market [5] - Samsung and Hisense lead the 65-inch and 75-inch segments with market shares of 26% and 22%, respectively, while Hisense and TCL dominate the 85/86-inch segment, each capturing nearly a quarter of the market [5] - TCL has emerged as the leader in the 98-inch market, while Hisense holds nearly half of the 100-inch market share [5] Future Market Dynamics - The growth momentum for large-sized TVs is expected to slow down as the effects of subsidy policies in China wane, with 65-inch shipments stagnating and 75-inch growth rates dropping to 13%, half of last year's figures [6] - The focus of brands is shifting from merely increasing size to upgrading product specifications, emphasizing differentiation through advanced features like RGB Mini LED, high refresh rates, and AI integration [6]