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恒瑞医药(600276):收入内生增速稳健 关注BD首付款落地节奏

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady internal revenue growth in Q3, with expectations that the upfront payment from the collaboration with GSK will be confirmed in Q4, indicating that the revenue growth for Q3 aligns with expectations. The confirmed upfront payment from business development (BD) is expected to be relatively small, while innovative drug sales are anticipated to continue growing rapidly [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.18 billion (up 14.9%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.75 billion (up 24.5%). The Q3 revenue was 7.43 billion (up 12.7%), with a net profit of 1.30 billion (up 9.5%) and a non-GAAP net profit of 1.32 billion (up 16.7%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 86.2% (up 0.3 percentage points), with total period expense ratio at 58.3% (down 1.6 percentage points). The net profit margin was 24.8% (up 2.0 percentage points). In Q3, the gross profit margin was 85.5% (no change), with total period expense ratio at 65.4% (down 0.1 percentage points) and a net profit margin of 17.6% (down 0.5 percentage points) [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.44 billion, 39.05 billion, and 43.88 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 23.1%, 13.4%, and 12.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.18 billion, 10.70 billion, and 11.77 billion, with growth rates of 44.9%, 16.6%, and 10.0%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 45, 39, and 35 times [4].