金价4000美元“拉锯战”开启，黄金市场多空博弈加剧！

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in the A-share market and precious metals, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around the 4000-point mark and gold prices fluctuating around $4000 per ounce [1]. Gold Market Dynamics - In the first week of November, gold continued its trend of volatility and correction [2]. - On Monday, spot gold briefly fell below $4000 per ounce but later rebounded, while COMEX gold futures also saw significant fluctuations [3]. - Despite recent volatility, gold prices have increased by over 50% year-to-date [4]. Market Reactions - Precious metal stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced collective declines, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold seeing drops of over 3% and 4%, respectively [5]. - The recent announcement of tax policy changes regarding gold has impacted market sentiment negatively [6][9]. Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued new tax policies that clarify the boundaries for value-added tax (VAT) on "investment gold" versus "non-investment gold" [7][8]. - Starting November 1, retailers selling gold purchased from the Shanghai Gold Exchange will no longer enjoy VAT deductions, which may increase procurement costs for retailers [8][13]. Global Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported a 28% increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 compared to the previous quarter, reversing a downward trend seen earlier in the year [10]. - Total global gold demand reached $146 billion in Q3, marking the highest quarterly demand on record, driven primarily by investment demand [11]. - Chinese investors purchased 74 tons of gold bars and coins in Q3, a 19% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total retail gold investment demand of 313 tons for the year, the highest since 2013 [12]. Market Outlook - Concerns arise that the cancellation of tax incentives may suppress demand in the global precious metals market, with potential short-term selling pressure from speculative funds [13]. - Analysts suggest that the new tax policy may increase procurement costs for small retailers, potentially benefiting larger companies with better channel management [13][14]. - The market is currently reassessing gold's value amid various macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest rate changes and geopolitical tensions [15][16]. - Despite recent outflows from gold ETFs, the inherent safe-haven appeal of gold remains attractive to investors due to ongoing global uncertainties [18]. Future Price Predictions - Metals Focus predicts that gold prices may challenge the $5000 per ounce mark by 2026, with an average price of approximately $4560 per ounce for that year, reflecting a 33% year-on-year increase [19].