大摩:维持对保险股全年业绩正面看法 关注明年初开门红销售表现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 06:47

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the insurance companies covered have reported impressive net profits and growth in life insurance sales for the third quarter, with AIA Group (01299) and Ping An Insurance (601318) exceeding expectations. The firm maintains a positive outlook for the insurance industry's annual performance and highlights the importance of monitoring the sales performance at the beginning of next year as a key driver [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - All major players achieved remarkable quarterly profit growth despite high baselines, largely anticipated as most insurers had issued profit warnings. The annualized total investment return for all exceeded 6%, while the annualized net investment return declined to approximately 3.5% [1] - The trend in book value is encouraging, with Ping An and China Pacific Insurance (601601) recording after-tax operating profit growth of 9% and 8%, respectively [1] Group 2: Capital and Risk - The industry's capital levels have declined, influenced by a continuous reduction in risk discount rates and increased equity risk exposure, although the capital situation remains relatively satisfactory [1] Group 3: Sales and Business Quality - Quarterly life insurance sales remained strong, driven by high growth in bancassurance sales and demand before the adjustment of pricing rates by insurance companies. Most players achieved increases in both annualized premium income and profit margins, with accelerated growth in new business value [1] - The agent workforce has stabilized, business quality continues to improve, and the proportion of participating products has increased. The property and casualty insurance and disaster insurance sectors showed widespread improvement in the first three quarters, with most insurers experiencing a decrease in the combined cost ratio by 0.5 to 2.1 percentage points, reaching a healthy level of 96.1% to 97.6% [1]