政策面、基本面、估值共振，创新药迎来是“黄金赛道”

Core Viewpoint - The investment safety margin for innovative drugs has increased significantly after a round of adjustments, and the upcoming national medical insurance negotiations in the fourth quarter are expected to catalyze further value in innovative drug investments [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The innovative drug sector experienced a rebound on October 31, with multiple indices rising over 3%, including a 3.71% increase in the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index [3]. - Year-to-date performance shows that several innovative drug indices have increased by over 80%, with some reaching double their values at peak [4]. - Despite a significant adjustment since mid-September, where major indices fell over 10% and some over 20%, the fundamental and policy aspects suggest a potential for continued growth [4][6]. Group 2: Fundamental Drivers - The aging population in China is a fundamental driver for the pharmaceutical sector, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, there will be 310 million individuals aged 60 and above, accounting for 22% of the total population [5]. - Continuous R&D investment and accelerated expansion into overseas markets are identified as core engines for profit growth among innovative drug companies [5][6]. - As of October 31, 52 out of 80 innovative drug companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, indicating a shift towards sustainable profitability [6]. Group 3: Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of health initiatives, supporting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, which lays a solid foundation for the sector's growth over the next five years [6]. - The introduction of the "Commercial Insurance Innovative Drug Directory" in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations is expected to broaden market opportunities for innovative drugs [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - For ordinary investors, the complexity of investing in innovative drugs suggests that utilizing ETFs may be a more accessible approach [7]. - The Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159297) is highlighted as a noteworthy option, closely tracking the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, which has been refined to exclude CXO companies, enhancing its focus on pure innovative drug firms [7][8]. - Historical performance data shows that the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has delivered strong returns over various time frames, making it an attractive investment vehicle [8]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - As of October 31, the TTM P/E ratio for the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index was 41.09, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [9]. - The macroeconomic environment appears stable, with ongoing potential catalysts in the innovative drug sector, including recent breakthroughs at international conferences and favorable domestic policy developments [9].