通胀粘性掣肘 澳洲联储本周料按下降息“暂停键”

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting, with no forward guidance anticipated due to increasing economic uncertainty [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The core inflation rate in Australia rose from a revised 0.7% in Q2 to 1% in Q3, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's target range of 2-3% [3]. - Domestic demand remains strong, driven by government tax cuts and energy subsidies, contributing to persistent inflation, particularly in services [3]. - Recent data indicates a rise in credit growth and record-high housing prices, suggesting that the financial environment is not overly tight [3]. Labor Market Conditions - The labor market shows signs of loosening, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest level since September 2021 [4]. - A report indicated that the number of private sector job advertisements fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 7.4% year-on-year, reflecting labor market weakness [4]. Future Projections - Some economists predict that Australia may face a situation similar to the U.S., where moderate economic growth and rising unemployment could lead to a cooling of prices, prompting the RBA to consider rate cuts [4]. - The RBA is expected to maintain its current policy until there is clear evidence of economic direction, with some forecasts suggesting two rate cuts in the next year, bringing the rate down to 3.1% [5].