邓正红能源软实力：欧佩克“增量+暂停”组合拳决策本质是软实力系统压力测试

Group 1 - OPEC has decided to increase oil production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day in December, following a previous reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day, due to favorable market conditions and low global inventories [1] - The eight OPEC member countries will suspend production increases in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal factors, with the potential for the previously reduced production to be partially or fully restored depending on market conditions [1] - The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2025, and the organization has received compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman to address overproduction, covering the period from last month to June 2026 [1] Group 2 - The theory of soft power by Deng Zhenghong emphasizes that the essence of oil market price fluctuations is the transformation of energy forms under rule constraints, with OPEC's production decisions influencing supply and demand through market expectations [2] - OPEC's strategy of "incremental increase + seasonal pause" aims to reshape market order through both technical standards (soft power) and production adjustments (hard power) [2] - The analysis highlights that despite an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day in 2025, market expectations of oversupply persist, indicating weaknesses in OPEC's soft power dimension [3] Group 3 - The current energy landscape is characterized by a shift from traditional hard power, focused on production and reserves, to a soft power phase centered on rule-making and expectation management [4] - Key contradictions include the fragmentation of rules and discrepancies between OPEC's compensation plans and actual execution by member countries, as well as a decline in the shale oil industry's technological drive [4] - Future competition in energy soft power will focus on technological sovereignty, standard-setting for carbon capture and hydrogen energy, and the transition from linear resource-capacity thinking to a network of rules and values [4] Group 4 - OPEC's recent decision reflects a stress test of its soft power system, showcasing flexibility through a combination of production increases and pauses, while still struggling to reverse oversupply expectations [5] - The analysis suggests that the oil market is undergoing a paradigm shift from resource control to rule reconstruction, indicating a need for sustainable rule innovation effectiveness [5]