Super Micro Computer(US:SMCI) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 08:08Core Viewpoint - Supermicro (SMCI.US) is set to release its Q1 FY2026 earnings report on November 4, 2023, with preliminary revenue expectations of $5 billion, which is below previous guidance and Wall Street estimates, leading to recent stock pressure [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's preliminary revenue for Q1 FY2026 is approximately $5 billion, significantly lower than the market consensus of $6.48 billion, resulting in an 8% drop in stock price following the announcement [1] - Wall Street anticipates a 49.3% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.38 for Q1 FY2026 [1] - The market's general expectation for Q1 FY2026 revenue is $5.83 billion, reflecting a 1.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Orders and Future Outlook - Despite the disappointing revenue forecast, Supermicro reported over $12 billion in new design orders, which are expected to start delivering in Q2 FY2026 [1][2] - Analyst Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt Securities raised the target price from $50 to $60, maintaining a "buy" rating, citing the new design orders as a mitigating factor against the negative revenue outlook [2] - Analyst Vijay Lakshman from Mizuho Securities reiterated a "neutral" rating with a target price of $50, noting that the new orders are likely from clients seeking delivery in the upcoming quarter [2][3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating for Supermicro stock on Wall Street is "neutral," based on 8 neutral, 4 buy, and 3 sell ratings, with an average target price of $44.15, indicating a potential downside risk of about 15% [4] - TipRanks AI analysts assigned a "neutral" rating with a target price of $56, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 8% [3]