Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 08:13Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that AIA Group (01299) has delivered strong new business value results supported by both mainland China and Hong Kong, leading to an expected positive market reaction and an upward revision of new business value forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AIA's new business value for Q3 2025 reached $1.48 billion, representing a 27% year-on-year increase, significantly surpassing Morgan Stanley's forecast of $1.29 billion [1] - The strong growth is attributed to factors such as product margin expansion, slightly higher business volume growth, and the appreciation of local Asian currencies against the US dollar [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The stock is currently trading at 1.3 times the projected embedded value for FY2026, compared to an average of 1.7 times, suggesting potential for valuation multiple expansion [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 105 for AIA and maintains an "Overweight" rating, recommending accumulation of the stock with a 12 to 24-month investment horizon [1] Group 3: Future Catalysts - Key drivers for future growth include potential acceleration in the mainland market, strategic expansion opportunities in India and ASEAN under new leadership, and greater clarity regarding excess capital returns to shareholders in 2026 and beyond [1]