Huaxi Securities(SZ:002926) 智通财经网·2025-11-03 08:12Supply - The total gold supply reached a historical high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, driven by record mineral production and improved recycling rates [2][3] - Year-to-date, the gold supply has increased by 1% to a record 3,717 tons, with the recycling volume showing the largest growth of 3% to 1,041 tons [2] Demand - In Q3 2025, gold demand (excluding OTC and others) reached 1,258 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16% [3] - Investment demand surged to 537.2 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13% [3] - Central bank purchases amounted to 219.9 tons, up 10% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter [3] Jewelry - Jewelry demand saw a decline across almost all markets year-on-year, primarily due to record gold prices impacting consumer purchasing power [4] - Despite the decline in consumption volume, the total jewelry spending reached $41 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year [4] Investment - The surge in gold prices in Q3 was largely attributed to accelerated investment demand across all forms, including gold bars, coins, and ETFs [5] - Year-to-date investment demand has reached 1,566 tons, only 6% lower than the peak in the first three quarters of 2020, with total investment value for the first nine months reaching $161 billion, more than double the previous year [5] Central Banks - Central banks remained significant contributors to gold demand, with net purchases estimated at 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [6] - Year-to-date, central banks have added 634 tons to their gold reserves, exceeding the average of 400-500 tons per year prior to 2022 [6] Industrial Demand - The expected seasonal growth in electronic product demand did not materialize in Q3, influenced by record gold prices and companies seeking cost-saving measures [7][8] Long-term Outlook - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support gold prices, alongside global concerns over debt and currency [9] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with significant fiscal deficits projected, which may further bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [9] Investment Opportunities - The rise in gold prices has enhanced profit expectations for gold resource stocks, which are currently undervalued, presenting potential investment opportunities [10] - Notable stocks to consider include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), and China National Gold Group (02099) [10]