Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 08:17Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988) with a target price of HKD 204.79, driven by the acceleration of AI-driven growth and cloud expansion [2]. E-commerce Segment - The e-commerce business is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 127.18 billion in FY26Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [3]. - The main site is projected to see a GMV growth of 7% year-on-year, supported by the Taobao flash purchase business, maintaining a steady trend from the previous quarter [3]. - CMR is anticipated to grow by 10% year-on-year, with the flash purchase contributing 2-3% to this growth, aided by improved advertising TR from enhanced ad algorithms [3]. - The launch of the AI-powered shopping assistant on Taotian in August is expected to enhance user conversion rates through personalized recommendations [3]. Instant Retail Segment - The instant retail business is projected to incur losses exceeding CNY 35 billion in FY26Q2, with an average loss of around CNY 5 per order [4]. - Daily orders stabilized at 80 million in August, with peak daily orders surpassing 100 million, indicating strong demand [4]. - Starting in September, the company plans to reduce delivery subsidies, expecting losses per order to decrease to CNY 2-3 in FY26Q3, while focusing on market share and long-term growth [4].