锂价暴跌+小作坊搅局：新能源汽车电池千亿回收市场争夺战

Core Insights - The domestic power battery recycling market is expected to exceed 300,000 tons in 2024, with a market size of 48 billion yuan, and is projected to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2030 [1][2] - The industry faces multiple challenges, including competition from informal recycling channels, price volatility of key metals, and the need for upgraded recycling processes due to rapid battery technology iterations [2][12] Market Overview - The market is currently in the early stages of a significant growth phase, with expectations of substantial increases in battery recycling volumes over the next three to five years [2] - As of now, there are 148 main recycling companies on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's whitelist, but the market lacks unified recycling channels for retired passenger vehicle batteries [2][12] Battery Lifecycle and Utilization - The lifespan of a power battery is typically 8 years or 150,000 kilometers, after which it can be recycled [3] - Retired batteries can either be "second-life" utilized in less demanding applications or "recycled" back into raw materials [4][5] Recycling Processes - "Second-life" utilization involves testing and reassembling batteries for use in applications like public transport and municipal lighting, where energy density requirements are lower [5][7] - Batteries that do not meet the health standards are sent for material recovery, extracting valuable metals like nickel, cobalt, and lithium [6][7] Market Dynamics - The recycling market is heavily influenced by the prices of lithium carbonate and other metals, which have seen significant fluctuations, impacting profitability [8][9] - The price of lithium carbonate peaked at 600,000 yuan per ton in November 2022 but has since dropped below 100,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [8][11] Industry Challenges - The industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many compliant companies unable to compete with informal operations that offer higher prices [12][13] - The overall recycling sector is experiencing losses due to high operational costs and low metal prices, making it difficult for compliant companies to remain profitable [13][14] Regulatory Environment - China has established 22 national standards for battery recycling, aiming to create a standardized framework for the industry [18][19] - The government is working to improve the management policies and regulatory frameworks surrounding battery recycling to enhance market efficiency [19][20] Future Outlook - The battery recycling market is expected to grow as regulations and standards improve, and as companies innovate their technologies and processes [20] - The potential for profitability in the recycling sector may increase as the volume of retired batteries rises, leading to lower costs and improved economic viability [20]