Super Micro Computer(US:SMCI) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 08:21Core Viewpoint - Supermicro (SMCI.US) is set to release its Q1 FY2026 earnings on November 4, with preliminary revenue expectations of $5 billion, which is below previous guidance and Wall Street estimates, leading to recent stock pressure [1] Revenue Expectations - The market's general expectation for the quarter's revenue is $5.83 billion, reflecting a 1.9% decline year-over-year [2] - Supermicro's preliminary revenue data for Q1 FY2026 was significantly below market expectations, resulting in an 8% drop in stock price [1][2] Analyst Ratings and Reactions - Analyst Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt Securities raised the target price for Supermicro from $50 to $60, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite the disappointing revenue forecast, citing over $12 billion in new design orders [3] - Analyst Vijay Lakshman from Mizuho Securities reiterated a "Neutral" rating with a target price of $50, noting that the new design orders are likely from clients expecting deliveries in Q2 FY2026 [3][4] - TipRanks AI analysts assigned a "Neutral" rating with a target price of $56, indicating about 8% upside potential, while highlighting strong revenue growth and cash flow improvements [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for NVIDIA and AMD chips remains strong, which may lead to revenue deferrals into Q2 FY2026 [4] - Dell Technologies is gaining market share in the enterprise AI server market, which could impact Supermicro's competitive position [4] Consensus Ratings - Wall Street consensus rating for Supermicro is "Neutral," based on 8 Neutral, 4 Buy, and 3 Sell ratings, with an average target price of $44.15, suggesting approximately 15% downside risk from current stock levels [5]