Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-03 08:24Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing partial government shutdown in the U.S. is likely to end within two weeks, which is crucial for the data-driven decision-making of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that the shutdown, which is approaching the record duration of 35 days from 2018-2019, is nearing its end, with a likely resolution around the second week of November [2][3]. - The prolonged shutdown is attributed to unconventional measures taken by the Trump administration, such as utilizing unspent funds from the previous year, but this temporary relief is diminishing [2]. - Key pressure points, including missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel, are increasing the urgency for Congress to reach a compromise [2]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions - The duration of the shutdown is seen as a critical variable influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [1][4]. - If the government reopens by mid-November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may take additional days to release delayed employment reports, which could affect the timing of key economic data releases [4]. - Citigroup analysts express growing confidence that the government will reopen soon, allowing the Fed to receive multiple employment reports before its December meeting, potentially supporting a 25 basis point rate cut [4]. Group 3: Economic Consequences of the Shutdown - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, leading to a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [5]. - The report suggests that the economic impact of the shutdown is likely to be temporary, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026 as furloughed employees return to work [5].